Establishment pollsters have many ways to manipulate data so as to confirm their own biases and sell the establishment’s narrative.
Thus, when depending on a pollster, one must often dig into the results in order to find meaningful data.
For instance, a new The Economist/YouGov poll conducted Aug. 25-27 showed a significant surge for former President Donald Trump following his alliance with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
On Friday, Kennedy endorsed Trump in one of the greatest speeches ever given by an American.
Then, at a Trump rally in Arizona on Friday evening, Kennedy received a raucous ovation after the former president introduced him.
On the social media platform X, conservative commentator Benny Johnson undoubtedly spoke for millions when he called Kennedy’s rally entrance “EPIC.” Readers may watch that moment below:
Since Friday, Kennedy has touted his alliance with Trump and the MAGA movement. In an appeal to Independent and moderate voters, Kennedy and Trump have united around three major issues: peace, freedom and children’s health.
Meanwhile, on Monday, former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard also endorsed the former president.
In other words, Trump has brought prominent disaffected Democrats into his coalition.
Gabbard, of course, already appeared to have gravitated toward Trump and his supporters. Plus, she made her formal endorsement on Monday, whereas the new poll from The Economist/YouGov began on Sunday.
Therefore, the new poll captured data most likely to gauge the impact of the new Trump-Kennedy alliance.
For instance, the Aug. 25-27 poll showed Trump leading Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by a margin of 42 percent to 37 percent among Independents, post-RFK Jr. bump.
In a poll conducted Aug. 17-20, however, the same pollster showed Independents breaking evenly for Trump and Harris, 38 percent to 38 percent.
Thus, Trump improved his support among Independents by five points following Kennedy’s endorsement — and that could matter in an increasingly tightening presidential race.
Likewise, in the latest poll, Harris led by 16 points, 52 percent to 36 percent, among self-described ideological moderates.
One week earlier, however, those same moderates broke for Harris by 20 points, 50 percent to 30 percent.
Furthermore, in the earlier poll, Kennedy commanded 6 percent support from moderates and 5 percent from Independents.
That means that nearly all of Kennedy’s polling support shifted toward Trump.
Now, having seen this movie before, do you trust these polls? No?
Good. You should not trust them, at least not their bottom line numbers. Pay attention to how they sample and especially to their histories of inaccuracy in recent cycles. If they represent an establishment institution, then they have an establishment narrative to sell you.
According to the establishment pollster FiveThirtyEight, YouGov ranked 17th among 26 major pollsters for accuracy during the 2020 presidential election. See below for the complete list.
Those pollsters, particularly on the bottom half of the accuracy list, consistently underestimated Trump’s support.
Thus — and here comes the good news — when we find a meaningful shift toward Trump even from the least accurate pollsters, i.e. those with a recent history of grossly exaggerating support for Democrats, we actually — believe it or not — have all the more reason to believe it.
